US stocks represented by S&P500 were up 8.44% for the month of March. The Canadian S&P TSX60 grew by 7.99%. Morgan Stanley’s EAFE was 3.74% higher. While we are still 49% lower than the high in November of 2007, we have rallied 8% off the low point earlier in March.
While most of the worries and economic turmoil persists, there has been some measure of relief to the stock markets. We are at a point of growing divergence between wall street and main street. More evidence is expected of shrinking economies in North America and overseas yet these backward looking measures were not reflected in the recent buoyant return to stocks across the world.
The short term return to investment returns is random but momentum trends do make themselves known. For this positive return environment to continue investors will have to ignore the results from main street. They will have to ignore the fact that consumers are saving more and deferring large purchases. The market will have to rally in the face of lower earnings reports from companies and yes more bankruptcies and higher unemployment figures. There are no assurances, risk is pervasive even from these price levels. If this is the beginning of a turnaround in fortune for the stock markets then it would be consistent with the beginning of other bull markets, shrugging off the bad news and climbing higher in spite of the evidence.
Filed under: financial markets, investing, portfolio Tagged: | market timing, portfolio management
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